Monthly Macro Review - April 2026

Macro at a glance

On April 8, the United States and Iran announced a temporary two-week ceasefire. However, the truce was immediately strained by diverging interpretations over whether Lebanon was included in the agreement, as Israel continued its strikes in Lebanon and Hezbollah later resumed fire. By the end of the month, the Strait of Hormuz had still not fully reopened, with shipping flows remaining severely disrupted. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran had largely stalled, with the main points of contention being free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s leverage over the waterway, and the future of its nuclear programme, including uranium enrichment and stockpiles. This standoff quickly fed into renewed inflationary pressure. In the eurozone, annual inflation rose to 3% in April, while in the United States CPI accelerated to 3.3%, with energy prices up 12.5% year-on-year. In Japan, core inflation reached 1.8%, as higher energy costs began to weigh on the inflation outlook. The World Bank now projects a 24% surge in energy prices in 2026 due to the Middle East war. Beyond inflation, the main risk now lies in physical supply. TotalEnergies (TTE.PA) CEO Patrick Pouyanné warned that if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lasted another two or three months, Europe could enter a period of energy scarcity, as available buffers had already been absorbed. On April 28, the UAE announced it would leave OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, bringing to an end its 59-year membership in the global oil price cartel. (Reuters, Bloomberg, FT)

Jerome Powell chaired his last FOMC meeting on April 28-29, bringing a close to his tenure as Chair of the Federal Reserve. The Committee held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. The decision came against a backdrop of rising inflation, with March CPI (all items index) at 3.3% YoY, well above the Fed’s 2% target, partly driven by war-related energy disruptions. Meanwhile, the transition of leadership is underway. President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh, a former Fed Governor who served on the board from 2006 to 2011, to succeed Powell, who is to remain on the Board of Governors until this term ends in 2028. At his April 21 Senate Banking Committee hearing, Warsh called for a “regime change” in monetary policy and a new inflation framework. Under pressure from senators on both sides of the aisle, Warsh vowed to act as an “independent actor” and rejected any suggestion he would cut rates under political pressure from the White House. (CNBC, CME FedWatch, FT, Kiplinger)

One Sector, One Insight

Basic Materials and Energy :

The CEOs of SLB (SLB) and Halliburton (HAL) both suggested in their respective earnings calls that crude oil prices would remain high well beyond the immediate duration of the conflict. SLB expects post-conflict prices to remain above pre-conflict levels, citing damage to infrastructure, production shutdowns and a lasting geopolitical risk premium. Halliburton’s CEO, Jeff Miller, reiterated this view, stating that the world is fundamentally more constrained in terms of oil and gas than it was 60 years ago, and expects countries to invest more in domestic oil and gas production as they seek to reduce their dependence on the Middle East. Both shares have gained nearly 50% since the start of the year. On 27 April, Goldman Sachs (GS) raised its fourth-quarter forecasts for Brent to $90 a barrel and WTI to $83, and warned that oil prices could reach $120 if Gulf exports do not return to normal by the end of July. (MarketWatch, Reuters, FT)

Consumption and General Public Services :

LVMH (MC.PA) CEO Bernard Arnault warned shareholders at the company's Annual General Meeting in Paris on April 23 that the Middle East conflict could result in a "world catastrophe with very serious and very negative economic impact" if it is not resolved. Organic sales at the world's largest luxury company grew only 1% in Q1, with the Iran war subtracting 1 percentage point from growth. Kering (KER.PA) reported an 11% decline in Middle East retail revenue in Q1, while Hermès (RMS.PA) said wholesale activity was significantly affected by lower sales to concession stores in the Middle East and at airports. The Middle East typically represents mid-single-digit percentages of luxury sales but carries higher profitability. Arnault expects a return to growth in H2 if a resolution is reached. (CNBC)

Financial Services :

On April 22, the Swiss Federal Council published its final Capital Adequacy Ordinance, setting out new capital rules for UBS (UBSG.SW) that the bank has described as “extreme”. Taken together with the separate foreign participations proposal submitted to parliament the same day, the measures would require $37bn in additional CET1 capital in total, comprising $22bn from the combined Swiss regulatory package and around $15bn linked to the Credit Suisse acquisition, with an estimated annual cost of $3bn. Under the ordinance, capitalized software will be subject to a maximum 3-year amortisation schedule for capital purposes and prudential valuation adjustments will be revised upward, eliminating $4bn of CET1 capital at a group level and reducing UBS’ CET1 ratio by a approximately 0.8 percentage points. The proposal requiring full deduction of foreign subsidiaries from UBS AG’s standalone CET1 capital has been submitted to parliament, where lawmakers are expected to begin deliberations in early May. UBS has strongly pushed back, arguing the package lacks international alignment and disregards the majority of consultation respondents. (SEC, UBS)

Healthcare :

Sun Pharmaceuticals (SUNPHARMA.NS) is acquiring New Jersey-based Organon & Co. (OGN) for an enterprise value of $11.75 billion, which is the largest acquisition ever made by an Indian pharmaceutical company. Shareholders will receive $14 per share, representing a 24% premium on Organon’s closing price prior to the announcement. Both boards have approved the deal and it is expected to close in early 2027. This acquisition pushes Sun Pharma into the top 25 global pharmaceutical companies as well as reduces Sun's reliance on the U.S. generic drug market by providing a strong presence in women's health and biosimilars. However, Sun Pharma is moving from a cash-positive position to a highly leveraged one, taking on Organon's $8.6 billion debt. The combined entity's net debt-to-EBITDA is projected at 2.3x. While manageable, analysts warn that they cannot afford any mistakes. Finally, the success of this acquisition depends on: obtaining antitrust and regulatory approvals across multiple countries, Sun's ability to pay down debt, and the integration of both firms. (Yahoo Finance)

Industrials :

Amazon (AMZN) announced on April 14 the acquisition of Globalstar (GSAT) for $11.57 billion, offering shareholders $90 per share in cash or0.3210 Amazon shares, a premium of more than 31% over Globalstar’s April 1 closing price . The deal adds Globalstar’s two dozen satellites to Amazon’s existing 200-strong constellation and secures a critical Direct-to-Device (D2D) capability , which allows satellites to connect directly to smartphones without the need for cell towers. Amazon plans to launch this service in 2028. By July, Amazon must have half of its planned 3,200-satellite constellation, targeted for full deployment by 2029, in orbit to meet a regulatory deadline. This transaction is a sign of accelerating consolidation in satellite industry, as legacy industrial players struggle to challenge SpaceX’s Starlink, which already operates more than 10,000 satellites and serves over 9 million users globally. SpaceX itself is preparing a June Nasdaq listing at a $1.75 trillion valuation, which would make the largest IPO in history. (Reuters, BBC, Apple Magazine)

Technology and Network Equipments :

Intel's (INTC) stock surged 24% last Friday, reaching an all-time record high of $82.57, finally surpassing its previous peak during the dot-com bubble in 2000. The company reported Q1 revenue of $13.6 billion (up 7%), beating Wall Street's expectations. For the current quarter, Intel expects revenues between $13.8 billion and $14.8 billion, significantly higher than the $13 billion analysts had predicted. The new CEO Lip-Bu Tan has cut 15% of the workforce and canceled expensive projects in Germany and Poland to focus on engineering and efficiency. Analysts attribute the restoration of investor confidence to Tan’s connections within the sector, his focus on fundamentals, and a partnership with Elon Musk regarding his ‘Terafab’ site. Musk plans to be the first major customer for Intel's advanced 14A manufacturing process for use in Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX projects. The stock has more than tripled over the past year, aided by high-profile investments from Nvidia (NVDA) and SoftBank (9984.T). (FT)

The stock of the month

Avis Budget Group (CAR) was at the center of one of the most spectacular “short squeezes” in recent market history. The stock rose from an opening price of $147.52 on April 1 to an intraday high of $847.70 on April 22, closing the month at $180.60. This movement was not primarily driven by fundamentals, but by an extreme market structure: according to Ortex data cited by Reuters, 86.2% of the float was shorted, while two entities together held more than 71% of the company’s outstanding shares. As a result, very few shares remained available for short sellers to cover their positions, creating intense short-squeeze pressure as the stock continued to climb. Once this technical pressure subsided, the rally quickly reversed, underscoring just how disconnected this move had become from the company’s fundamentals. (Reuters, FT, Yahoo Finance)

Key performances

Name	As of April 30	Monthly change	YTD
S&P500	7209.01	13.64%	5.31%
Dow Jones	49652.14	9.81%	3.31%
NASDAQ	24892.31	19.71%	7.10%
FTSE100	10378.82	2.48%	4.51%
CAC40	8114.84	4.41%	-0.43%
DAX	24292.38	7.67%	-0.81%
SMI20	13136.27	3.69%	-0.99%
MSCI WORLD	4661.73	10.19%	3.98%
VIX	25.25	27.14%	68.90%
CHF/USD	1.2797	1.14%	0.23%
CHF/EUR	1.0826	-0.55%	0.76%
Brent $/bbl	111.30	8.64%	84.66%
Gold Spot $/oz	4630.20	-2.85%	5.64%

Upcoming events

May 3: Opec meeting without UAE

May 12-13: US CPI and PPI (April)

May 20: Nvidia earnings

Written by Hippolyte Metzger-Otthoffer, Melisa Yetisir, Anastasia Kosolompova and Cyrille Desponds