Monthly Macro Review - February 2026

Macro at a glance

After weeks of tension and attempts at negotiation, the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on 28 February. The targets were likely regime officials, nuclear infrastructure and missile launch sites. Iran began retaliating later that day, firing missiles at the United States' main allies in the region, namely Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The United States had been preparing this attack for months, sending two aircraft carriers accompanied by their carrier strike groups, 200 aircraft, including around 100 transport and refuelling aircraft, and more than 50,000 American soldiers. (Reuters, FT, Bloomberg)

On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources, Inc v. Trump that the administration's tariffs, imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), exceeded presidential authority. This invalidated levies that had pushed the average U.S. effective tariff rate to nearly 17%, its highest level since the early 1930s. Markets reacted with cautious optimism: equities rallied while the dollar and Treasuries fell on the day of the ruling. However, the judgment cannot by itself undo the damage caused by America's turn to protectionism. Trump invoked the Trade Act of 1974 to reimpose a 15% global tariff, while the prospect of $100–175bn in potential refunds on previously collected duties introduces a substantial, if one-off, fiscal stimulus into an already uncertain outlook. Core inflation ran at a 3% annual rate in December, complicating the monetary policy response, which remains the biggest macro risk. (Bloomberg, SCOTUSblog, Yale Budget Lab)

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a historic landslide victory in the February 8, 2026, snap election, winning 316 of 465 seats. Under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the party achieved a single-party supermajority, while its coalition with the Japan Innovation Party reached 352 seats. This result provides a powerful mandate for Takaichi’s "proactive" fiscal agenda, which includes a ¥21 trillion stimulus and a proposed two-year suspension of the 8% consumption tax on food. Financial markets responded sharply; the Nikkei 225 surged 8.5% this month. However, the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield climbed 6bps to 2.282%, reflecting investor concern over debt sustainability in an economy where debt-to-GDP exceeds 250%. (The Guardian, Nippon.com, The Japan Times)

One Sector, One Insight

Basic Materials and Energy :

French utility giant Engie (ENGI) announced on February 25, 2026, that it agreed to fully acquire UK Power Networks for an equity value of £10.5 billion. The landmark transaction marks the exit of Li Ka-shing’s Cheung Kong Group and hands Engie control of approximately 192,000 kilometers of power lines serving 8.5 million British customers. The primary strategic driver is a rapid pivot toward predictable, regulated electricity distribution to capitalize on surging grid demands driven by the energy transition. To finance the acquisition and preserve its investment-grade rating, Engie plans to leverage debt, hybrid securities, and a €4 billion asset-disposal program by 2028. Completion is expected in mid-2026, subject to customary regulatory clearances. (Financial Times, The Guardian, S&P Global)

Consumption and General Public Services :

A brutal divergence in consumer drinking habits shook the global beverage sector in late February 2026. Diageo’s (DGE) shares crashed nearly 13% on February 25, their worst single-day drop on record, after new CEO Dave Lewis halved the company's dividend and downgraded full-year sales forecasts, citing pronounced weakness in the US and a 13% plunge in Asia-Pacific net sales. Conversely, Heineken (HEIA) reported highly resilient full-year results earlier in the month, delivering a 4.4% expansion in operating profit and initiating new share buybacks. This stark contrast underscores the limits of the spirits industry's "premiumization" strategy amid a tighter macroeconomic environment, while traditional, accessible beer staples continue to defend their volumes and margins. (Morningstar, Reuters, Bloomberg)

Financial Services :

European investment banks reported their highest trading revenues in over a decade for the full-year 2025, driven by persistent macro volatility and a resurgence in client activity. Deutsche Bank (DBK) saw Investment Bank revenues grow 9% to €11.5 billion, with Fixed Income & Currencies hitting a record €9.6 billion. UBS (UBSG) reported a 53% surge in annual net profit to $7.8 billion, bolstered by high trading engagement following its integration of Credit Suisse, while Barclays (BARC) achieved a 13% increase in pre-tax profit to £9.1 billion. The windfall stems from "normalized" interest rate environments and increased demand for hedging across FICC and equity derivatives. BNP Paribas (BNP) also contributed, with Global Markets revenues rising 9.1%. (FT, Reuters, Bloomberg)

Healthcare :

February 2026 has delivered a remarkable wave of healthcare dealmaking, spanning biotech, hospital systems, and animal health. Gilead Sciences (GILD) agreed to acquire Arcellx (ACLX) for $7.8 billion, centered on anito-cel, a promising CAR T-cell therapy for multiple myeloma. In animal health, Covetrus and MWI Animal Health announced a $3.5 billion merger combining global distribution with veterinary software services. Meanwhile, Blackstone (BX) and TPG moved to acquire diagnostics company Hologic (HOLX) for up to $18.3 billion. Together, these deals reflect a sector under structural pressure: biopharma scrambling to fill pipeline gaps ahead of patent cliffs and private equity consolidating service platforms. (Bloomberg, Healthcare Dive, Reuters, STAT News)

Industrials :

On 6 February 2026, Stellantis (STLA) announced a 'reset' of its operations, resulting in charges totalling approximately €22.2 billion, primarily from impairments and asset write-offs. The group attributed most of these charges to a decline in demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and a realignment of the production plan, including platform impairments and write-offs of cancelled products, and reported cash payments totalling around €6.5 billion over the next four years. On 26 February, Stellantis announced total impairments of €25.4 billion for 2025, as well as a net loss of €20.1 billion for the second half of the year. Stellantis is the latest car manufacturer to announce write-downs due to difficulties selling electric vehicles. This follows similar announcements in recent months by Volkswagen (VOW3) for €6 billion, Ford (F) for $19.5 billion, and General Motors (GM) for $6 billion. (Reuters, FT)

Technology and Network Equipments :

The "SaaS-pocalypse" has triggered a massive capital rotation, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) plunging 27% from all time high as investors fear AI-driven obsolescence. Emerging tools like Anthropic’s "Claude Code" and OpenAI’s ChatGPT have fueled concerns that AI-generated bespoke applications could replace legacy platforms like Salesforce (CRM) and ServiceNow (NOW), both down over 33%. In contrast, Goldman Sachs reports that "HALO" firms, defined by Heavy Assets and Low Obsolescence risk, have outperformed capital-light software by 35% since 2025. This basket includes industrial and semiconductor giants like Airbus (AIR), ASML (ASML), and Boeing (BA). The market is increasingly repricing the "real-economy" strategic value of physical infrastructure and engineering complexity. Food and beverage leaders like Coca-Cola (KO) and PepsiCo (PEP) have also surged up to 20% as investors seek refuge in non-digital moats, signaling a structural shift where tangible assets now command the valuation premiums once reserved for software. (Barron's, Goldman Sachs)

The stock of the month

Lumentum (LITE), a key supplier of optical and photonic components for AI/cloud data centers, has seen spectacular growth: the stock is trading at around $677, up more than 100% this month. The momentum accelerated after the February 3 results: revenue for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 reached $665.5 million (+65.5% year-over-year) and profitability rebounded strongly. (Reuters, Barrons)

Key performances

Name	As of February 28	Monthly change	YTD
S&P500	6878.88	-1.43%	0.49%
Dow Jones	48977.92	-0.05%	1.90%
NASDAQ	22668.21	-4.82%	-2.47%
FTSE100	10910.55	6.88%	9.86%
CAC40	8580.75	5.25%	5.29%
DAX	25284.26	1.57%	3.24%
SMI20	14014.30	6.04%	5.63%
MSCI WORLD	4557.25	0.64%	2.85%
VIX	19.86	21.47%	32.84%
CHF/USD	1.2992	0.50%	3.00%
CHF/EUR	1.0994	0.77%	2.38%
Brent $/bbl	73.08	4.77%	20.06%
Gold Spot $/oz	5278.26	7.83%	22.23%

Upcoming events

Mar 11: US CPI (February 2026)

Mar 17–18: US FOMC meeting

Mar 18–19: BoJ monetary policy meeting

Written by Hippolyte Metzger-Otthoffer, João Vieira, Leo Thelen and Cyrille Desponds