Monthly Macro Review - January 2026

Macro at a glance

Washington is once again asserting its influence across the globe, using methods that may be questionable. In Venezuela, the removal of Nicolás Maduro has led to the enactment of laws allowing for the immediate privatisation of oil; however, the physical reality of degraded infrastructure has resulted in muted recovery in production, with major companies like ExxonMobil (XOM) retaining a cautious stance despite the legal framework. This intervention had a direct impact on Cuba by severing its subsidised supply lines, prompting the administration to pursue a "wedge" strategy that aims to economically isolate the Cuban state while empowering private entrepreneurs with US banking access. In a move that has been met with concern by global markets, Donald Trump has initiated a new phase in his "tariff circus", this time with the aim of gaining control over Greenland. His latest gambit has even seen him threatening military force against NATO allies. The "deal" Trump got out of it, was revealed to have dual-purpose: the framework secures not only military guarantees for the "Golden Dome" missile defence shield, but also strategic rare earth minerals, confirming the agreement was as much about security guarantees as it was about resources. Meanwhile, the situation in Iran has escalated to the point that there is a possibility of regime change. As economic collapse and hyperinflation have led to mass protests, the US is reportedly considering direct military intervention to support the Iranian people, while also taking action to cut off the regime's last liquidity lifeline by sanctioning the Zedcex crypto-exchange. This is a significant development, as it recognises that digital assets have become a crucial financial resource for the IRGC. (Reuters, FT, Bloomberg)

On 27 January 2026, the European Union and India concluded negotiations on a long-awaited free trade agreement aimed at reducing customs duties on most goods. The agreement is expected to cover around 96.6% of traded goods by value and seeks to strengthen supply chain links at a time of increasing geopolitical fragmentation. It is important to note that the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) remains unchanged, so carbon-intensive exports (particularly steel and cement) will still be subject to the border regime even if tariffs are reduced, keeping "green trade frictions" on the agenda. (Reuters, FT)

President Donald Trump said on January 30 that he would nominate Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve when Powell's term ends in May, subject to Senate confirmation. Mr. Warsh is a former Fed governor (2006-2011) who has long been considered an inflation hawk, although he has recently argued that rate cuts may be warranted. Markets reacted quickly: the S&P 500 fell 0.43% and the Nasdaq 0.94%; the dollar index rose 0.57% and the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose by about 2.4 basis points. The most significant adjustment was in “inflation hedges”: the strengthening of the dollar and the release of higher-than-expected producer price figures contributed to significant profit-taking, causing gold to fall more than 10% and silver to fall 28% during the day. (Reuters, Barrons)

One Sector, One Insight

Basic Materials and Energy :

Glencore (GLEN) and Rio Tinto (RIO) confirmed on January 9, 2026, that they have entered preliminary discussions regarding a potential mega-merger. The proposed all-share deal, valued at over $260 billion, would create the world’s largest mining entity, surpassing BHP. The primary strategic driver is the consolidation of copper assets to meet surging demand from AI infrastructure and the energy transition. A combined group would produce approximately 1.7 million tonnes of copper annually. Key hurdles include Glencore’s coal exposure and antitrust approvals across multiple jurisdictions. (FT, Reuters, Mining.com)

Consumption and General Public Services :

A new health alert concerning infant formula shook Danone (BN) and Nestlé (NESN) in January. The stock markets reacted sharply on 20 and 21 January 2026: Danone fell by nearly 12% intraday in Paris on 21 January after the Singapore Food Agency took action against a batch concerned, while Nestlé's share price fell more moderately (around 3%). This new scandal comes amid a broader context of declining customer confidence and difficulties in the infant nutrition segment, which accounts for 21% of Danone's revenue and 5% of Nestlé's. (Reuters, Bloomberg)

Financial Services :

U.S. financial services stocks faced significant volatility in January 2026 as President Trump intensified a dual-front regulatory push against the credit card industry. Shares of Mastercard (MA) fell 6.3% in mid-January, with Visa (V) and American Express (AXP) also seeing sharp declines, following the President's call for a one-year, 10% cap on credit card interest rates, well below the current 24% national average. The administration also formally endorsed the reintroduced Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA), which would force banks with over $100 billion in assets to offer alternative processing networks for "swipe" fees. While banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) warn that a 10% cap could eliminate credit access for 80% of Americans and decimate rewards programs, some analysts suggest the regulatory threat may cause investors to rotate out of issuers like Capital One (COF) and into processing networks, which are insulated from interest rate risk. (FT, CNBC)

Healthcare :

Merck & Co. (MRK) engaged in negotiations to acquire biotechnology firm Revolution Medicines (RVMD), a developer of oncology drugs, in what market reports indicated could have been a transaction valued between $28 billion and $32 billion. Talks focused on access to Revolution’s late-stage experimental cancer therapies, including daraxonrasib. In January 2026, Merck ended acquisition discussions with Revolution, after the companies failed to agree on a purchase price. However, industry reports mention that these talks could potentially resume in the future or attract other buyers. Indeed, Revolution’s upcoming clinical data readouts for its cancer drug candidates should be an important factor in future valuation assessments. (Bloomberg, Nasdaq, Reuters)

Industrials :

On January 23rd 2026, Czech defence manufacturer Czechoslovak Group (CSG) completed its initial public offering on Euronext Amsterdam. The company is a major producer of ammunition and defence equipment, with manufactures in Europe, America and other regions, and customers in over 70 countries. The offering comprised new and existing ordinary shares, including an over-allotment option, representing around 15.2 % of issued share capital post‑IPO. The IPO raised about €3.8 billion in gross proceeds and priced shares at €25 each, valuing the company at €25 billion at listing. The share sale was supported by major institutional investors (BlackRock, Artisan Partners, Al-Rayyan Holding) whose investments totalled €900m. Shares rose to 32.85% upon debut trading (+31.4%), giving a market capitalisation of over €30 billion. The listing marked the largest IPO for a pure-play defence company on record and one of the largest European IPOs in recent years. (Euronext, FT, Reuters)

Technology and Network Equipments :

Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) both reported elevated spending on artificial-intelligence infrastructure and data-center build-outs as part of their latest earnings cycles. Meta’s quarterly results included record revenue to which investors reacted very positively, with share price increasing 8–10% following the releases. Microsoft’s earnings also showed increased AI-related capital expenditures and revenue growth, but its share price reacted very differently and declined 10-12% in the same period, reportedly due to investor concern over heavy AI spending and slower cloud growth relative to expectations. (Reuters, FXStreet)

The stock of the month

Sandisk (SNDK) shares delivered a historic 109% return in January, closing the month at $576.25. The stock has now rallied over 1,400% since its February 2025 spinoff from Western Digital (WDC), fueled by a global "storage supercycle" that analysts suggest could leave the firm sold out for years. The rally culminated in a blowout Q2 earnings report on Jan. 29. Revenue surged 61% YoY to $3.03 billion, while adjusted EPS of $6.20 decimated the $3.54 consensus. Growth was headlined by a 64% sequential leap in data center revenue as hyperscalers rushed to secure high-performance NAND for AI "factories." Looking ahead, management’s Q3 guidance of $12–$14 EPS on revenue up to $4.8 billion suggests structural margin expansion, with gross margins expected to hit a record 65–67%. (Morningstar, MarketWatch, Reuters)

Key performances

Name	As of January 31	Monthly change	YTD
S&P500	6939.03	1.37%	1.37%
Dow Jones	48892.47	1.73%	1.73%
NASDAQ	23461.82	0.95%	0.95%
FTSE100	10223.54	2.94%	2.94%
CAC40	8126.53	-0.28%	-0.28%
DAX	24538.81	0.20%	0.20%
SMI20	13188.26	-0.60%	-0.60%
MSCI WORLD	4527.59	2.19%	2.19%
VIX	17.44	16.66%	16.66%
CHF/USD	1.2927	2.48%	2.48%
CHF/EUR	1.0910	1.60%	1.60%
Brent $/bbl	69.32	11.95%	11.95%
Gold Spot $/oz	4895.12	13.36%	13.36%

Upcoming events

Feb 4-5: ECB monetary policy meeting

Feb 11: US CPI

Feb 25: Nvidia (NVDA) Q4 earnings

Written by Hippolyte Metzger-Otthoffer, João Vieira, Leo Thelen and Cyrille Desponds