Monthly Macro Review - November 2025

Macro at a glance

In November 2025, Japan's economic narrative was shaped by the formalization of the "Takaichi Doctrine", as the Cabinet approved a substantial ¥21.3 trillion ($135 billion) stimulus package aimed at combating stagflation. This aggressive fiscal expansion exceeds initial market estimates and clashes directly with the Bank of Japan's efforts to normalize rates amid 3% inflation and a Q3 GDP contraction. This policy divergence has created a bifurcated market. The Nikkei 225 has consolidated its record highs above 50,000, while the bond market has fractured. This has sent 10-year JGB yields to 1.835%, which is their highest level since 2008. Markets are bracing for a December cliffhanger, as the BoJ is scheduled to meet on December 18-19. (AP, Reuters, Bloomberg)

The United States and Switzerland announced on November 14 a declaration of intent for Washington to slash its additional tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15%, under a new framework agreement. In return, Switzerland and Liechtenstein are to lower duties on a range of US exports including industrial goods, seafood and some agricultural products, and grant duty-free quotas on selected meats. As part of the deal, Swiss companies pledged US $200 billion in investments in the US by 2028, with around $67 billion expected in 2026. The agreement also caps any prospective tariffs on pharmaceuticals or semiconductors at 15% (under potential future trade-security measures). The tariff cut brings relief to many Swiss exporters, but some observers note the overall impact on the Swiss export economy may be modest, given that exempted sectors like pharma and gold already dominate Swiss-US trade. (Reuters, AP, SWI)

Taiwan has proposed, on November 27, a supplementary defense budget of $40 billion spanning

between 2026-2033. Driven by the escalating threat from China, the goal is to build an “unassailable

Taiwan”. The funds are primarily dedicated to new arms acquisitions from the United States and

enhancing missiles and drones capabilities. Defense Minister Wellington Koo confirmed that

preliminary coordination for these procurements is complete with the US. While projected to generate 90,000 jobs and T$ 400 billion in direct economic benefit, the plan is still pending on an approval from Taiwan’s opposition-dominated parliament, where the Kuomintang party has criticized the reliance on massive borrowing needed. (Bloomberg, Reuters, Al Jazeera)

One Sector, One Insight

Basic Materials and Energy :

Yttrium, a rare earth essential for aerospace alloys, lasers, semiconductors and clean-energy components, hit all-time high prices with spot quotations rising from under $8/kg in late 2024 up to roughly $120–270/kg (+1’400% - 3’200% YTD) depending on market source. The spike was caused by tightened export controls from China, which dominates global production of yttrium and other rare-earths. This shock has transformed the economics of projects that produce yttrium as a by product, such as Rainbow Rare Earth (RBW)’s planned Phalaborwa rare earth project in South Africa, which could see an increase in yearly EBITDA of nearly $30 million. (Bloomberg, Reuters)

Consumption and General Public Services :

Kimberly-Clark (KMB) agreed to acquire Kenvue (KVUE) on 3 November 2025 in a $48.7 billion transaction designed to create a $32 billion revenue "wellness powerhouse". The deal values Kenvue at $21.01 per share (based on KMB’s close price on October 31), offering shareholders $3.50 in cash and 0.14625 Kimberly-Clark shares, which is a 46% premium. After the deal closes, Kimberly-Clark investors will own about 54% of the combined company. Kenvue stock jumped 17% following the announcement, while Kimberly-Clark shares fell 12%. This deal follows recent controversies involving the Trump administration's scientifically contested claims linking Tylenol to autism. (Kenvue Investor News)

Financial Services :

Federal banking agencies finalized a rule on November 25, modifying capital standards for Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs), aiming to improve liquidity in Treasury markets. The Federal Reserve, FDIC, and OCC announced that the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR) for depository subsidiaries will be capped at 1%, limiting the total requirement to 4%. This adjustment is projected to reduce aggregate Tier 1 capital requirements by nearly 2% for major lenders like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Citigroup (C). The rule addresses long-standing industry warnings that overly stringent leverage caps discouraged banks from intermediating low-risk assets. Effective April 1, 2026, this move provides significant balance sheet relief, complementing the broader Basel III Endgame revisions finalized earlier this year, which set aggregate capital increases at approximately 9%. (Federal Reserve, Reuters)

Healthcare :

Bayer (BAYN), the German life sciences giant active in prescription medicines, consumer health and agricultural sciences, announced on 3 November 2025 the positive results of the Phase III OCEANIC-STROKE trial of its experimental drug asundexian for the prevention of stroke. The share price rose 9.9% the following day, with the market applauding this resounding success. For the past decade, investors had become more accustomed to scandals and bad news surrounding the company, including litigation in the United States over Monsanto's glyphosate-based Roundup herbicide, which resulted in settlement costs of several billion euros and added further pressure to an already indebted balance sheet. (FT, Reuters)

Industrials :

Nexperia, a Dutch-based chipmaker owned by China’s Wingtech (SHA:600745), has been at the centre of a rare use of Dutch emergency powers and growing tech-security tensions. On 30 September 2025, the government invoked the Cold War-era Goods Availability Act to take effective control of the company, citing “serious governance shortcomings” and national-security concerns over potential technology transfers to China. On 19 November, after weeks of diplomatic talks and mounting worries about automotive chip shortages, The Hague suspended the order and relinquished day-to-day control, easing immediate supply-chain stress but leaving ongoing legal disputes with Wingtech and political pressure from Beijing in the spotlight. (Barrons, Le Figaro)

Technology and Network Equipments :

Alphabet (GOOG) stock has jumped around 16% since the Nasdaq peaked on October 29. This surge occurred while other big tech stocks, including Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), and Nvidia (NVDA), and Meta Platforms (META), saw double-digit declines. The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of $102.4 billion, up 34% from the prior year, with adjusted EPS of $2.87, beating analyst estimates. This momentum is driven by the adoption of its advanced Gemini 3 model, which won immediate praise for its reasoning and coding capabilities and revived confidence in Google’s AI leadership. Strengthening this trajectory, the company has rolled out a massive partnership with Anthropic involving 1 million TPUs worth tens of billions of dollars and is reportedly in discussions to supply Meta with its custom AI chips for deployment in its data centers in 2027. (Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Yahoo Finance)

The stock of the month

Strategy Inc (MSTR) shares plummeted to a seven-month low in November, dropping over 25% as major institutional investors significantly reduced their exposure. Filings reported on November 24 revealed that asset giants, including BlackRock and Vanguard, pared their positions by approximately $5.4bn, citing a sharp contraction in the stock's premium to its Bitcoin holdings. The sell-off was driven by MSTR's price decoupling from the underlying cryptocurrency, with its Net Asset Value (NAV) multiple compressing to nearly 1.16x—a stark drop from previous highs. With Bitcoin recently dipping below $90,000, this institutional rotation suggests that the market is no longer rewarding Strategy’s aggressive leveraged proxy model, preferring direct Bitcoin exposure or ETFs instead. (The Economic Times, Morningstar)

Key performances

Name	As of November 30	Monthly change	YTD
S&P500	6849.09	0.13%	16.45%
Dow Jones	47716.42	0.02%	12.16%
NASDAQ	23365.69	-1.94%	21.00%
FTSE100	9720.51	0.25%	18.93%
CAC40	8122.71	-1.14%	10.05%
DAX	23836.79	-1.82%	19.73%
SMI20	12833.96	3.83%	10.63%
MSCI WORLD	4398.44	0.18%	18.63%
VIX	16.35	-0.43%	-5.76%
CHF/USD	1.2437	-0.45%	12.95%
CHF/EUR	1.0722	-0.85%	0.74%
Brent $/bbl	61.97	-3.14%	-16.14%
Gold Spot $/oz	4218.30	7.28%	63.27%

Upcoming events

Dec 5: US PCE inflation release

Dec 9-10: FOMC monetary policy meeting

Dec 18-19: Bank of Japan policy meeting

Written by Hippolyte Metzger-Otthoffer, Jason Louis, Cyrille Desponds, Leo Thelen and João Vieira