Macro at a glance Ukraine stepped up its campaign against Russia's energy infrastructure in May, striking refineries and export facilities including Kirishi, Perm, Ryazan, Moscow, Syzran and Yaroslavl, as well as oil and gas facilities along the Baltic and Black Sea routes. By 21 May, Kyiv said it had struck 11 Russian oil facilities during the month, with further attacks later reported on the Novorossiysk oil terminal, an oil depot in Armavir and a tanker at the port of Taganrog. The...

Macro at a glance On April 8, the United States and Iran announced a temporary two-week ceasefire. However, the truce was immediately strained by diverging interpretations over whether Lebanon was included in the agreement, as Israel continued its strikes in Lebanon and Hezbollah later resumed fire. By the end of the month, the Strait of Hormuz had still not fully reopened, with shipping flows remaining severely disrupted. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran had largely stalled, with...

Macro at a glance More than a month after the war began, the U.S. and Israeli offensive against Iran has stalled. What Donald Trump had described as a “quick operation” has turned into a regional conflict with far-reaching military, energy, and political consequences. Despite more than 10,000 targets struck, according to U.S. officials, the Iranian regime is holding firm and continues to strike back. Above all, Iran has succeeded in shifting the conflict’s center of gravity to the Strait of...