Macro at a glance On April 8, the United States and Iran announced a temporary two-week ceasefire. However, the truce was immediately strained by diverging interpretations over whether Lebanon was included in the agreement, as Israel continued its strikes in Lebanon and Hezbollah later resumed fire. By the end of the month, the Strait of Hormuz had still not fully reopened, with shipping flows remaining severely disrupted. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran had largely stalled, with...

Macro at a glance More than a month after the war began, the U.S. and Israeli offensive against Iran has stalled. What Donald Trump had described as a “quick operation” has turned into a regional conflict with far-reaching military, energy, and political consequences. Despite more than 10,000 targets struck, according to U.S. officials, the Iranian regime is holding firm and continues to strike back. Above all, Iran has succeeded in shifting the conflict’s center of gravity to the Strait of...

Macro at a glance After weeks of tension and attempts at negotiation, the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on 28 February. The targets were likely regime officials, nuclear infrastructure and missile launch sites. Iran began retaliating later that day, firing missiles at the United States' main allies in the region, namely Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The United States had been preparing this attack for months,...