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Macro at a glance Ukraine stepped up its campaign against Russia's energy infrastructure in May, striking refineries and export facilities including Kirishi, Perm, Ryazan, Moscow, Syzran and Yaroslavl, as well as oil and gas facilities along the Baltic and Black Sea routes. By 21 May, Kyiv said it had struck 11 Russian oil facilities during the month, with further attacks later reported on the Novorossiysk oil terminal, an oil depot in Armavir and a tanker at the port of Taga

Macro at a glance On April 8, the United States and Iran announced a temporary two-week ceasefire. However, the truce was immediately strained by diverging interpretations over whether Lebanon was included in the agreement, as Israel continued its strikes in Lebanon and Hezbollah later resumed fire. By the end of the month, the Strait of Hormuz had still not fully reopened, with shipping flows remaining severely disrupted. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran had largel

Macro at a glance More than a month after the war began, the U.S. and Israeli offensive against Iran has stalled. What Donald Trump had described as a “quick operation” has turned into a regional conflict with far-reaching military, energy, and political consequences. Despite more than 10,000 targets struck, according to U.S. officials, the Iranian regime is holding firm and continues to strike back. Above all, Iran has succeeded in shifting the conflict’s center of gravity t

Macro at a glance After weeks of tension and attempts at negotiation, the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on 28 February. The targets were likely regime officials, nuclear infrastructure and missile launch sites. Iran began retaliating later that day, firing missiles at the United States' main allies in the region, namely Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The United States had been preparing this attack

Macro at a glance Washington is once again asserting its influence across the globe, using methods that may be questionable. In Venezuela, the removal of Nicolás Maduro has led to the enactment of laws allowing for the immediate privatisation of oil; however, the physical reality of degraded infrastructure has resulted in muted recovery in production, with major companies like ExxonMobil (XOM) retaining a cautious stance despite the legal framework. This intervention had a d

Macro at a glance The trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur became a hot topic in global trade in December, illustrating how politically fragile liberalisation remains in a world already plagued by reshoring and tariff risk. Even after significant progress, the signing has been postponed until January 2026, with leaders facing intense domestic pressure, particularly from the agricultural sector, which fears competition from imports and non-equivalent standards (called r

Macro at a glance In November 2025, Japan's economic narrative was shaped by the formalization of the "Takaichi Doctrine", as the Cabinet approved a substantial ¥21.3 trillion ($135 billion) stimulus package aimed at combating stagflation. This aggressive fiscal expansion exceeds initial market estimates and clashes directly with the Bank of Japan's efforts to normalize rates amid 3% inflation and a Q3 GDP contraction. This policy divergence has created a bifurcated market. T

Macro at a glance On October 26, Argentina held midterm legislative elections that served as a critical, make-or-break referendum on President Javier Milei's radical "shock therapy" economic program. Against pre-election polling that suggested a weakening of his support, and following a destabilizing provincial election defeat in September , Milei's La Libertad Avanza ( LLA ) party secured a decisive nationwide victory, winning approximately 41% o the national vote. The marke