Monthly Macro Review - September 2025

Brunello Cucinelli store New Bond street, London

Macro at a glance

On 17 September, Riyadh and Islamabad signed a mutual defence pact committing both parties to treating an attack on one as an attack on both. This is a rare formal security guarantee in the Gulf, coming as it does in the wake of the Israeli attack on Qatar and amid growing doubts about US protection. While the text is vague, its symbolism is strong: Saudi Arabia is now linking part of its deterrence strategy to Pakistan, the only Muslim state with nuclear weapons. This has fuelled debate and denials about the existence of an implicit 'nuclear umbrella', according to many experts. Markets interpret this in two ways: short-term support for the security of energy infrastructure, but greater risks of an extreme nature if Iran, India or Israel were to confront one of the two protagonists. (Reuters, Bloomberg, FT)

On September 17, the Fed cut rates by a quarter point, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a deeper cut. At the same time, a showdown over Lisa Cook’s removal has raised fears that the White House is stripping the Fed of its independence, leaving monetary policy vulnerable to political control. (FT)

The US rating agency Fitch, one of the top global institutions gauging the financial solidity of sovereign borrowers, downgraded France on its ability to pay back debts, from “AA-” to “A+”, the country’s lowest level on record at a major credit rating agency. France now faces a debt that amounts 115.6% of France's gross domestic product in the second quarter. On the contrary Portugal’s credit score has been lifted from “A” to “A+”. Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s (S&P), which are considered the three major credit rating agencies alongside Fitch, are scheduled to announce France’s credit ratings in October to November. (Bloomberg, Le Monde)

One Sector, One Insight

Basic Materials and Energy :

Anglo American (AAL.L) is continuing with its plan to sell its 85% stake in De Beers. After significant write-downs and a sharp slowdown in the natural diamond market, the company is leaning towards a commercial sale. There is growing momentum on the buyer side: Botswana has stated its intention to acquire a majority stake by the end of October, while Angola's Endiama has submitted a fully financed offer for a minority stake. This signals the desire of producing countries to influence the future of De Beers. According to Anglo, 'serious buyers' are accessing the data room, and a resolution is expected within six to nine months. An IPO in 2026 remains a fallback option if the commercial sale is blocked. Proceeds from the sale (with a book value of around $4.9 billion) would enable Anglo to refocus on copper and iron ore. Meanwhile, the buyer of De Beers would be banking on supply discipline and a recovery in Chinese demand to offset the impact of synthetic diamonds. (FT, Reuters)

Consumption and General Public Services :

Shares of Italian luxury brand Brunello Cucinelli (BC.MI) experienced their steepest drop in history after short-seller Morpheus Research published a damning report accusing the company of misleading shareholders and violating EU sanctions. The stock plunged over 17% following the release, prompting a temporary suspension on the Milan stock exchange. The report alleges that Cucinelli has continued to operate boutiques in Moscow and sell high-value goods in Russia, despite sanctions imposed after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Morpheus Research also claims the company uses aggressive discounting through off-price channels, a practice that risks diluting its exclusive, high-end brand image. The company called the report "defaming" and is considering legal action to protect its reputation. (Reuters, Morpheus Research)

Financial Services :

The private equity industry, long a juggernaut of global finance, is facing a significant slowdown as its high-flying era of unchecked growth confronts the harsh realities of a new economic landscape. The core of the problem lies in a simple cash-flow crunch. For years, private equity firms thrived in a low-interest-rate environment that fueled leveraged buyouts and inflated valuations. Now, with rates higher, the cost of capital has soared, making deals more expensive and exits less profitable. This has created a bottleneck, with firms sitting on trillions of dollars worth of aging, unsold companies. This "exit logjam" has had a direct impact on investors, known as limited partners (LPs), who are growing increasingly frustrated. (Bloomberg, Private Equity Wire)

Healthcare :

Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche (ROG.SW) has agreed to acquire U.S. biotech 89bio in a deal valued at up to $3.5 billion. The acquisition boosts Roche’s presence in metabolic, renal, and cardiovascular disease areas. In parallel, Pfizer (PFE) is acquiring biotech Metsera in a deal worth up to $7.3 billion, including potential milestone payments. The move signals Pfizer’s renewed push into the fast-growing obesity and metabolic disease treatment field. These deals illustrate how the healthcare and biotechsector is seeing a wave of M&A activity, particularly in obesity and metabolic disease areas as large pharmaceutical firms race to secure next-generation assets. (Reuters, FT)

Industrials :

Jaguar Land Rover is gradually resuming operations after a cyberattack in late August paralysed its IT systems and shut down its three British factories for nearly four weeks. The company said it had begun to gradually restart production and restore its main logistics and invoicing systems after one of the most disruptive incidents experienced by a European car manufacturer in years. The shutdown, revealed by JLR on 2 September, affected the entire Midlands supply chain and cost tens of millions of pounds a week, with staff sent home and dealer registrations suspended. The UK government took steps to limit the damage by providing a £1.5 billion loan guarantee through UK Export Finance to maintain supplier liquidity, while JLR secured an additional £2 billion credit facility over 18 months from a banking consortium to provide a buffer during the recovery. The company has not yet disclosed the total losses due to this shutdown, nor the context in which the cyberattack occurred. (Reuters, The Guardian, FT)

Technology and Network Equipments :

Video game maker Electronic Arts (EA) has officially entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired and taken private for $55 billion, confirming recent speculation in what stands as the largest all-cash, sponsor-led buyout in history. The acquisition is being led by a consortium of high-profile investors, including private equity firm Silver Lake, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF), and Affinity Partners, a firm founded by Trump's son-in-law. The group will pay $210 per share in cash, a 25% premium over the stock's price before the news initially broke. This monumental transaction underscores a massive consolidation trend within the gaming industry. For EA, the publisher of iconic franchises like Madden NFL, Battlefield, and The Sims, going private offers the flexibility to pursue long-term growth and innovation without the pressure of quarterly market expectations. (Reuters, EA News)

The stock of the month

Andean Precious Metals Corp. (APM.TO) was one of the market's top performers in September, rocketing up by approximately 47% for the month. This explosive growth was driven by a historic rally in gold, which established a new record high. The Canadian firm with silver and gold deposits in Bolivia and California is one of the junior mining companies that are riding the extraordinary momentum of the precious metals. The yellow metal is now up a staggering 47% year-to-date, propelled by expectations of deep interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and intense safe-haven demand amid global uncertainty. (Yahoo FInance, Reuters)

Key performances

Name	As of September 30	Monthly change	YTD
S&P500	6688.46	3.53%	13.72%
Dow Jones	46397.89	1.87%	9.06%
NASDAQ	22660.01	5.61%	17.34%
FTSE100	9350.43	1.78%	14.41%
CAC40	7895.94	2.49%	6.98%
DAX	23880.72	-0.09%	19.95%
SMI20	12109.42	-0.64%	4.38%
MSCI WORLD	4305.10	2.65%	15.66%
VIX	16.26	5.99%	-6.17%
CHF/USD	1.2552	0.41%	13.85%
CHF/EUR	1.0695	0.06%	0.39%
Brent $/bbl	66.12	-0.99%	-10.82%
Gold Spot $/oz	3882.70	11.77%	48.98%

Upcoming events

Oct 15: US CPI

Oct 26: ECB Governing Council meeting

Oct 28-29: FOMC Meeting

Written by Hippolyte Metzger-Otthoffer, Amaury Chartier and João Vieira