Monthly Macro Review - June 2025

Macro at a glance

The mid-June escalation between Iran and Israel, triggered by Iranian missile attacks and subsequent U.S. airstrikes on nuclear facilities, raised serious concerns about the Strait of Hormuz, since its closure could be a retaliation strategy from the Iranian forces. Roughly 20% of global oil supply flows through this narrow chokepoint, and fears of disruption drove Brent crude up more than 10%, briefly topping $77 per barrel. Although tensions spurred comparisons to past oil crises, analysts noted that a complete closure of the strait remains unlikely. By late June, diplomatic efforts led to a fragile ceasefire, and oil prices retreated to around $68 as OPEC+ signaled readiness to boost output. Still, the episode underlined the global energy market’s persistent geopolitical fragility. (Reuters)

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to its lowest level since late 2021, slipping below 97 amid expectations of Fed rate cuts and renewed political pressure on the central bank. President Trump’s public attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell—threatening to reduce the institution’s independence—have unnerved markets. With investors turning to the euro and Swiss franc as alternatives. For instance, the SP500 index hit all time highs in U.S. Dollars, but not in Euros. (FXStreet)

The Swiss National Bank cut its key rate by 25bps to 0% on June 19, citing negative inflation and continued franc appreciation. Swiss CPI fell 0.1% year-over-year in May, and the franc has gained over 11% against major currencies this year. The SNB also left the door open to foreign exchange interventions, stating that it will “remain active” in markets to maintain price stability. With this move, Switzerland joins a growing list of advanced economies easing policy into a slower global growth outlook. (Euronews, SwissInfo)

On June 10, the World Bank cut its 2025 global growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%, citing rising trade tensions and tariff-driven disruptions. The slowdown is most pronounced in advanced economies, while Asia remains the main driver of global activity. The OECD also warned that new U.S. tariffs could shave 0.5 points off global GDP. While a recession is not expected, the decade risks becoming the slowest for growth since the 1960s. (World Bank, OECD, Reuters)

One Sector, One Insight

Basic Materials and Energy :

On June 2, Valterra Platinum (VALT) completed its London Stock Exchange secondary listing following an $11 billion demerger from Anglo American (AAL). The world's largest platinum producer by value listed 265 million shares on London's main market, complementing its primary Johannesburg listing. Shares rose 1.8% on debut despite concerns about index fund selling pressure, as Valterra sits outside the FTSE 100. The demerger was part of Anglo American's restructuring to focus on copper and iron ore while defending against BHP's (BHP) hostile takeover bid. (Reuters, WSJ)

Consumption and General Public Services:

Nike’s (NKE) stock jumped 15% on June 28, its largest daily gain in four years, after better-than-expected earnings reassured investors about its turnaround plan. This strong performance comes amid rising competition from Hoka and On, which had been gaining market share. The rally not only signals renewed confidence in Nike but also boosts sentiment across the entire apparel and footwear industry, suggesting that strategic repositioning and brand strength remain effective levers in a competitive market. (FT, CNBC)

Financial Services : 

On 6 June 2025, the Swiss government unveiled a plan requiring UBS (UBSG )to raise up to $26 billion in additional capital in order to fully cover its global subsidiaries (100% equity compared with only 65 at present). The measures, to be phased in by 2027-2028, are designed to strengthen financial stability following the collapse of Credit Suisse, with stricter asset valuation rules and increased supervisory powers. UBS, through its CEO and chairman, has criticised the rules as excessive and uncompetitive on a global scale, warning that they could limit dividends and force a review of international operations. Although the Swiss National Bank supports the reforms, they could force UBS to scale back its global ambitions to meet higher capital requirements. (FT, AGEFI)

Healthcare: 

On June 2, Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) partnered with BioNTech (BNTX) in a $11.1 billion deal to co-develop cancer drug BNT327. Bristol Myers will pay $1.5 billion upfront plus $2 billion through 2028, with up to $7.6 billion in potential milestones. The bispecific antibody targets two cancer proteins simultaneously and is already in Phase 3 trials for lung cancer, potentially competing with Merck's $29.5 billion Keytruda franchise. BioNTech shares jumped 15-20% on the news while Bristol Myers fell slightly. (Reuters,Yahoo Finance)

Industrials:

Xiaomi (1810) shares hit a record high after the Beijing-based smartphone maker said it had received more than 289,000 pre-orders for the YU7 within one hour of the sale starting on Thursday 26. Chung estimated future monthly sales of the YU7 to be about 60,000 to 80,000 cars, threatening the positions of BYD (1211) , Tesla (TSLA) and other carmakers competing in China’s cut-throat market. The Chinese group’s Hong Kong-listed shares rose 8 per cent after the market opened on Friday. Xiaomi’s shares have risen more than 70 per cent this year, making it one of the top-performing companies on the Hong Kong stock exchange this year. (Reuters, FT)

Technology and Network Equipments :

Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) has announced it will split its business into two publicly traded companies, with one focused on its streaming and studios business and the other on its television network businesses. David Zaslav, CEO of Warner Bros Discovery, will head the streaming and studios arm, while CFO Gunnar Wiedenfels will serve as president and CEO of global networks. Warner Bros Discovery also said it would restructure its debt, which has been a drag on its share price, using a $17.5bn bridge facility provided by JPMorgan Chase. (Reuters, FT)

The stock of the month

Circle (CRCL), the issuer of the stablecoin USDC, went public on 5 June 2025, raising $1.1 billion at $31 a share. The IPO was a great success: the share opened at 69 dollars and quickly soared to over 100 dollars. At the end of June, Circle shares were trading at  $180.44, representing a gain of 482% since the IPO. With a complicated start to the year for IPOs, Circle has clearly positioned itself as one of the most remarkable of the year. (Bloomberg, Reuters)

Key performances 

Name	As of June 30	Monthly change	YTD
S&P500	6204.95	4.96%	5.50%
Dow Jones	44094.77	4.32%	3.64%
NASDAQ	20369.73	6.57%	5.48%
FTSE100	8760.96	-0.13%	7.19%
CAC40	7665.91	-1.11%	3.86%
DAX	23909.61	-0.37%	20.09%
SMI20	11921.46	-2.50%	2.76%
MSCI WORLD	4030.02	3.77%	8.12%
VIX	16.73	-9.91%	-3.57%
CHF/USD	1.2604	2.97%	13.67%
CHF/EUR	1.0697	-0.31%	0.31%
Brent $/bbl	66.61	5.64%	-11.55%
Gold Spot $/oz	3320.50	0.93%	27.38%

Upcoming events

July 6-7: BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro

July 9: End of 90-day moratorium on US tariffs

July 30: Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting