Monthly Macro Review - August 2025

Macro at a glance

Donald Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska on 15 August ended without a ceasefire, despite Trump’s early optimism and mixed signals from his envoy. Three days later, European leaders and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy gathered at the White House to discuss security guarantees, exposing tensions over Ukraine’s refusal to cede land. On 29 August, Trump’s proposal for Chinese peacekeepers in Ukraine was swiftly rejected by Kyiv and Europe, given Beijing’s ties to Moscow. (FT, New York Post)

President Donald Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook has sparked an unprecedented legal battle over the president's power to remove officials ‘for cause’ and the independence of the Federal Reserve. Ms Cook filed a lawsuit to block her dismissal, and a federal judge in Washington held an initial hearing on 29 August 2025 without issuing a ruling, paving the way for a potentially historic test of the central bank's governance and independence. (FT, WSJ)

The yield on the UK’s 30-year government bond rose by eight basis points to 5.62% on Tuesday, close to the April peak of 5.66%, the highest since 1998. This makes it more expensive to finance its debt and puts strong pressure on the Chancellor to find tens of billions in budget savings, especially as high inflation and weak growth limit monetary room to manoeuvre. (FT, The Guardian)

On 25 August, Argentine markets plummeted after audio recordings were leaked alleging bribery in connection with purchases of ANDIS drugs involving Karina Milei, the sister of President Javier Milei: the S&P Merval fell 4% and the peso weakened by about 3%, while bonds also declined. The investigation, which has already led to legal proceedings and police raids, has become a test for the government's anti-corruption rhetoric and legislative influence in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Nevertheless, the economy appears stronger than at the beginning of 2025 (slowing inflation, stabilising activity) and investors will be watching to see whether the reforms will survive the political noise. (FT, El Pais)

One Sector, One Insight

Basic Materials and Energy :

Ørsted (ORSTED) is rushing to issue 60 billion Danish kroner ($9.4 billion) to consolidate its balance sheet after Washington ordered a halt to work on the nearly completed Revolution Wind project, dealing another blow to its US portfolio. The group's setbacks in the US are nothing new: it cancelled the Ocean Wind 1 & 2 projects in New Jersey, then terminated the Skipjack purchase agreement in Maryland, crystallising write-downs and legal costs while clouding its growth prospects. The latest halt caused a 17% drop in a single day on 25 August and capped a brutal month that saw shares fall more than 40%, with investors questioning execution, US political risk and the feasibility of financing large offshore projects until 2026-2027. (FT, Bloomberg)

Consumption and General Public Services :  

WH Smith (SMWH), one of the leading global travel retailers for books in England, saw its share price tumble by 42% on Thursday due to an accounting error that overstated its North America profits. The company reduced its profit forecasts in the region and ordered an audit. Analysts called it a significant embarrassment for WH Smith, which is rebuilding after selling its UK High Street division. The company now expects a trading profit of about £25 millions for North America from July to August, a cut from the initial forecast of £55 millions. (BBC)

Financial Services :

HSBC (HSBA) Private Bank is ending its relationship with more than 1,000 wealthy clients in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Lebanon and Egypt. This decision comes amid regulatory pressure following criticism from FINMA over the management of high-risk clients and breaches of anti-money laundering regulations. However, the bank reaffirms its commitment to its wealth management activities in Switzerland and the Middle East, while facing investigations in France and Switzerland related to past money laundering cases. (FT)

Healthcare :

From 1 September 2025, Eli Lilly (LLY) will increase the prices of Mounjaro on the UK private market to £330 for the 15 mg pen (+170.5%) and £180 for the 5 mg pen (+95.7%) and has suspended new orders in the UK to discourage stockpiling. In the United States, Novo Nordisk (NVO) now offers Ozempic at £499 per month for eligible patients paying cash (49.98% less than its list price of £997.58) and sets the price of Wegovy at £499. Strategically, Lilly is monetising scarcity in a small private channel while isolating NHS dynamics, while Novo is expanding access and defending its market share through direct cash payment programmes without resetting list prices. (FT, Bloomberg)

Industrials :

Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) has significantly downgraded its annual profit forecast, bracing for a staggering $9.5 billion impact from U.S. tariffs on imported vehicles. The world's largest automaker announced it was cutting its operating profit forecast for the fiscal year by 16%. In its first-quarter report, Toyota revealed it had already absorbed a $3 billion hit from the tariffs. The company now projects a full-year operating profit of 3.2 trillion yen, down from a previous estimate of 3.8 trillion yen. This revision comes despite a recent U.S.-Japan trade deal that lowered the tariff rate on Japanese auto exports to 15%. Despite the financial headwinds, Toyota reported record global sales for the first half of the year, driven by strong hybrid demand. (Reuters, The Guardian)

Technology and Network Equipments : 

In an unprecedented move blending industrial policy and national security, the U.S. government has acquired a 9.9% equity stake in semiconductor giant Intel (INTC). The deal, valued at approximately $11.1 billion, converts previously awarded grants under the CHIPS and Science Act into direct ownership, making the government a top shareholder.. This funding is intended to accelerate Intel’s stalled expansion projects, including a crucial new plant in Ohio, as it races to compete with rivals like Nvidia and TSMC. (Reuters, Investopedia)

The stock of the month:

Circle (CRCL) has gone from the euphoria of its IPO to a normalisation of its share price. The stock has lost 29% since the beginning of the month until 29 August and is 55.9% below its intraday peak on 23 June. This reset follows a secondary offering of 10 million shares on 10 August and the digestion of results, with investors reassessing the growth and valuation of a newly listed company that is sensitive to interest rates and specialises in ‘stablecoin rails’. (Yahoo Finance)

Key performances 

Name	As of August  31	Monthly change	YTD
S&P500	6460.26	1.53%	9.84%
Dow Jones	45544.88	2.44%	7.05%
NASDAQ	21455.55	1.54%	11.11%
FTSE100	9187.34	0.55%	11.23%
CAC40	7703.90	-2.01%	4.19%
DAX	23902.21	-1.48%	19.36%
SMI20	12187.58	2.14%	4.85%
MSCI WORLD	4177.72	2.49%	12.67%
VIX	15.36	-3.88%	-11.47%
CHF/USD	1.2486	1.71%	13.40%
CHF/EUR	1.0684	-0.62%	0.39%
Brent $/bbl	67.38	-6.08%	-9.90%
Gold Spot $/oz	3516.10	5.80%	34.92%

Upcoming events

Sept 8: Confidence Vote for the French Government

Sept 11: ECB Governing Council meeting

Sept 16-17: FOMC Meeting

Written by Hippolyte Metzger-Otthoffer, Amaury Chartier, Elia König and João Vieira