Macro at a glance
On 23 February 2025, Germany held early federal elections, as a result of a persistent recession and the collapse of the government coalition. Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU won a relative majority with 28.5%, followed by the AfD, which achieved a historic score of 20.8%, a sign of the population's distrust of the traditional parties. The SPD of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz collapsed to 16.4%, its worst score since the Second World War. The challenge for the next coalition will be to revive the German economy, which has been in recession for two years and is in urgent need of structural reform. (Der Spiegel, Bloomberg)
Chinese technology stocks have had an excellent start to the year, thanks in particular to the arrival of Deep Seek and the general realisation that China is also in the AI race, the flagship topic that has been driving up US indices for more than two years. The ‘terrific Ten’, the Chinese equivalent of the ‘Magnificent Seven’, have seen average growth of 28% since the beginning of the year, completely outperforming their American competitors. These 10 companies are Alibaba (9988), JD.com (9618), Meituan (3690), Tencent (0700), NetEase (9999), Xiaomi (1810), BYD (1211), Geely (0175), Baidu (9888) and SMIC (0981). (FT, Barron's, Yahoo Finance)
Donald Trump has stepped up his diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine. On 12 February, he spoke by videoconference with Volodymyr Zelensky, indicating that US military aid could be conditional on the opening of negotiations with Moscow. On 19 February, he went so far as to call Zelensky a ‘dictator’, arguing that there had been no elections in Ukraine since the start of the war. Trump's plan to negotiate a ceasefire and recover $500 billion worth of rare earths in Ukraine was met with opposition from the Ukrainians, before accepting it in principle on 25 February. Finally, on the 28th, during a stormy meeting in the Oval Office today, Trump accused Zelensky of ‘playing with World War III’, which brought their discussions to an abrupt end and led to the cancellation of the planned minerals deal. (BBC, FT, RTS)
One Sector, One Insight
Basic Materials and Energy :
On 13 February, the activist fund Elliott Management announced that it had acquired a stake of almost 5% in BP (BP), valued at around £3.8 billion. Elliott is pushing BP to refocus on its traditional oil and gas activities, advocating asset disposals and a reduction in investments in renewable energy. For the fund, the company's profitability and stock market performance have been poor for years, with the share price having risen by 5,8% in 5 years compared to its European competitors Shell (SHELL) (+65,7%) or TotalEnergies (TTE) (+50,6%). Despite this clear observation, a group of 48 institutional investors, representing 2.5% of the capital, is demanding a shareholder vote before any change to BP's climate targets. In the immediate term, the share price rose by up to 10% in the days following the announcement. (FT)
Consumption and General Public Services :
Walmart’s (WMT) Q4 2024 earnings beat expectations with a 4.1% revenue rise to $180.55 billion, but a cautious sales forecast led to a 6% stock drop. The company cited inflation and potential tariffs as key risks. Broader U.S. consumer sentiment weakened, with confidence at an eight-month low and spending on major purchases declining. These signals suggest growing economic caution despite resilient retail earnings. (Reuters)
Financial Services :
On 19 February, HSBC (HSBA) announced a major restructuring under the leadership of its new CEO Georges Elhedery. The bank expects to make annual savings of $1.5 billion by 2026, with restructuring costs estimated at $1.8 billion over the next two years. This reorganisation is accompanied by a reduction in investment banking activities in Europe and North America, in particular by putting an end to its mergers and acquisitions operations and to certain activities linked to the equity markets. This follows the decision in October to separate the ‘Eastern’ and ‘Western’ markets, which sometimes have contradictory dynamics. (FT, Barrons)
Healthcare :
In February 2025, Citadel, the hedge fund led by Ken Griffin, established a £305 ($384.5) million short position against GSK (GSK), representing 0.51% of the company's shares. This move reflects skepticism about GSK's ability to meet its ambitious £40 billion annual revenue target by 2031, especially with the impending patent expiration of its HIV drug, dolutegravir. Despite recent positive developments, including an 11% share price increase and a £2 billion stock buyback, concerns persist regarding GSK's future drug pipeline and litigation issues related to the heartburn medication Zantac. (FT, Bloomberg)
Industrials :
European defence companies have performed exceptionally well on the stock market since the beginning of the year, buoyed by increased military budgets and growing geopolitical tensions. The shares of German arms giant Rheinmetall (RHM) have risen by 37,5 % this month due to increased demand for armoured vehicles and ammunition. Thales (HO) and Dassault Aviation (AM), powerhouses of French industry, recorded monthly increases of 24,3% and 16,2% respectively, driven by export contracts and the growing need for advanced defence systems. BAE Systems (BA), in the United Kingdom, is benefitting from the announcement of an increase in the British military budget to 2.5% of GDP, posting an increase of 4.2%. Leonardo (LDO), in Italy, increased by almost 31,9% over the month. European states want to arm themselves at all costs, considering that they can no longer rely on the American military shield. (FT, Le Figaro)
Technology and Network Equipments :
On 26 February, Nvidia (NVDA) published impressive financial results for the fourth quarter of its 2025 fiscal year, with revenues of $39.3 billion (+78% year-on-year) and net income of $22.1 billion (+80%). The data centre division was the main driver of this growth, generating $35.6 billion thanks to strong demand for its Blackwell artificial intelligence chips. For the first quarter of 2026, Nvidia anticipates sales of $43 billion, surpassing analysts' forecasts. Despite these record results, the share fell slightly the following day (-8.5%), with investors remaining cautious in the face of potential challenges related to trade tensions and increased competition in the semiconductor sector. (Reuters, FT)
The stock of the month
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) avoided being delisted from the Nasdaq on 25 February by submitting its financial reports at the last minute. Nevertheless, the share price was very volatile during the month, starting at 27.20, reaching a peak on 18 February at 66.40 (+144%) and ending at 41.46 (+52%). (Yahoo Finance)
Key performances
Name | As of February 28 | Monthly change | YTD |
S&P500 | 5954.50 | -1.87% | 1.24% |
Dow Jones | 43840.91 | -2.25% | 3.05% |
NASDAQ | 18847.28 | -4.49% | -2.40% |
FTSE100 | 8809.74 | 3.23% | 7.79% |
CAC40 | 8111.63 | 2.71% | 9.90% |
DAX | 22551.43 | 5.23% | 13.27% |
SMI20 | 13004.48 | 4.41% | 12.10% |
MSCI WORLD | 3803.90 | -1.21% | 1.61% |
VIX | 19.63 | 19.62% | 13.14% |
CHF/USD | 1.1066 | 0.46% | 0.88% |
CHF/EUR | 1.0668 | 0.93% | 0.39% |
Brent $/bbl | 73.03 | -5.03% | -1.60% |
Gold Spot $/oz | 2867.30 | 4.74% | 10.02% |
Upcoming events
March 12: US CPI
March 20: Fedex earnings (alternative US consumer confidence indicator)
March 25: FOMC Meeting
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Written by Hippolyte Metzger-Otthoffer and Pierre Siomash
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