Macro at a glance
Since taking office on January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump has announced plans to cut corporate taxes to 15% for U.S.-based production, funded by higher tariffs, including a universal 2.5% import tax and targeted tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. In technology, he launched the Stargate Initiative, a $500 billion AI infrastructure project with OpenAI, Oracle (ORCL) and SoftBank (9984), starting with a $100 billion investment in Texas. On the diplomatic front, Trump has stoked tensions by demanding control of the Panama Canal, proposing that Canada become the 51st state and pressuring Denmark to cede Greenland. On January 26, he imposed 25% tariffs on Colombia, which quickly gave in to American demands. His aggressive policies seem to be bearing fruit for the moment, but risk increasing global instability in the long term. (Bloomberg, FT, Le Monde)
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell resisted pressure from Donald Trump to keep interest rates steady between 4.25% and 4.5%, despite the president's calls for rate cuts. Powell emphasised that the Fed was "in no rush to adjust its policy stance", signalling that no rate cuts are expected in the near future. However, the Fed is now in a difficult position as inflation has stopped falling and GDP growth for the fourth quarter came in at just 2.3% compared to an expected 3.1%, marking a weaker-than-expected economic performance. (FT, Tradingeconomics.com)
One Sector, One Insight
Basic Materials and Energy :
Since the start of his campaign, Donald Trump has repeatedly used the slogan “Drill, Baby, Drill”, making the rapid expansion of US oil and gas production the cornerstone of his economic policy.
On December 20, Trump signed an executive order reopening 5 million hectares of previously protected land to oil exploration, including key areas of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America excuse me... ). At the same time, the Interior Department has accelerated the permitting process, reducing waiting times for drilling projects from six months to just 45 days. The aim of this offensive is to flood the market with American oil in order to drive down its price, and thus curb rising inflation in the United States. However, its effectiveness is doubtful, given that petroleum products account for around 8% of the US CPI. (Barrons, Tradingeconomics.com)
Consumption and General Public Services:
Luxury giants LVMH (MC), Burberry (BRBY) and Richemont (CFR) posted divergent results in their latest earnings releases, reflecting changes in global demand. LVMH reported a 1% increase in fourth-quarter sales (23.9 billion euros), thanks to strong performances in the fashion and leather goods sectors, despite the slowdown in Chinese demand. Burberry, which has struggled in recent quarters, reported a 4% drop in comparable sales, better than the double-digit decline expected. The strategic changes implemented by CEO Joshua Schulman are clearly beginning to bear fruit. Meanwhile, Richemont led the sector with a 10% increase in sales (6.2 billion euros), thanks to strong American and European demand, which offset weak Chinese sales. (Les Echos, Agefi)
Financial Services :
The six largest U.S. banks (JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley (MS)) generated $142 billion in profits in 2024, a 20% increase compared to 2023. This performance marks the second-best year on record since 2007, driven by high interest rates, a strong economy, and a rebound in Wall Street activity. Additionally, higher consumer and corporate spending boosted revenues in the credit card and payment divisions, particularly benefiting major payment companies Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA). (FT)
Healthcare :
On January 23, 2025, Purdue Pharma and the Sackler family reached a new $7.4 billion settlement to resolve lawsuits over their role in the opioid crisis. This follows the U.S. Supreme Court’s rejection of a previous $6 billion deal, criticized for granting the Sacklers immunity. Driven by aggressive marketing and overprescription of painkillers like OxyContin, the crisis has caused hundreds of thousands of overdose deaths. The Sacklers will pay $6.5 billion over 15 years, while Purdue will contribute nearly $900 million. Unlike the previous deal, this one does not shield the Sacklers from civil lawsuits, allowing further legal action. It may set a precedent for similar public health crises. (FT, Le Figaro)
Industrials :
In December 2023, Nippon Steel (5401) announced a $14.9 billion bid to acquire U.S. Steel (X), aiming to merge its advanced technology with U.S. Steel’s operations. On January 3, 2025, President Biden blocked the deal, citing national security concerns over foreign control of a key industry. The decision followed rare bipartisan opposition from both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. In response, Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel filed a lawsuit, alleging unlawful government interference. Many experts believe the move was politically motivated, driven by election-year concerns over deindustrialization in swing states like Pennsylvania, where U.S. Steel is headquartered (Barrons, Reuters)
Technology and Network Equipments :
On January 27, 2025, Chinese startup DeepSeek shook global financial markets. Founded in 2023, it quickly gained attention with its AI model DeepSeek-R1, launched on January 20, becoming the most downloaded free app, surpassing ChatGPT. Using cheaper hardware, it cut development costs to $5.6 million—20 times less than GPT-4. This hit Nvidia (NVDA) hard, sending its stock down 17% and wiping out a record $589 billion. The shock spread across tech: Broadcom (AVGO) and AMD (AMD) lost 12.1% and 4.5%, while Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) fell 3.6% and 3.3%. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 dropped 2.8% and 1.7%, reflecting investor concerns over AI’s evolution. Markets rebounded the next day, but DeepSeek’s rise and shifting semiconductor demand remain key trends to watch. (FT)
The stock of the month
Tempus AI (TEM) enjoyed a major rally in January 2025, with its shares climbing 69% to a market capitalization of 9 billion dollars. This rise was largely driven by the launch of Olivia, an AI-powered healthcare app designed to centralize patient data and provide predictive insights, reinforcing the company's leadership in AI-powered healthcare. Investor confidence was also bolstered by reports that former Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi had purchased call options on the stock, indicating a strong belief in its future potential. (Investing.com)
Key performances
Name | As of January 31 | Monthly change | YTD |
S&P500 | 6040.53 | 2.26% | 2.26% |
Dow Jones | 44544.66 | 4.63% | 4.63% |
NASDAQ | 19627.44 | 0.72% | 0.72% |
FTSE100 | 8673.,96 | 6.81% | 6.81% |
CAC40 | 7235.11 | 8.70% | 8.70% |
DAX | 19626.45 | 9.16% | 9.16% |
SMI20 | 12597.09 | 8.59% | 8.59% |
MSCI WORLD | 3836.58 | 3.47% | 3.47% |
VIX | 16.43 | -5.57% | -5.57% |
CHF/USD | 1.0968 | -0.18% | -0.18% |
CHF/EUR | 1.0589 | -0.70% | -0.70% |
Brent $/bbl | 76.40 | 3.17% | 3.17% |
Gold Spot $/oz | 2832.50 | 8.65% | 8.65% |
Upcoming events
Feb 7: US Unemployment rate
Feb 12: US CPI
Feb 18: Potential new US tariffs on oil and gas
Feb 26: Nvidia Q4 earnings
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Written by Hippolyte Metzger-Otthoffer and Jeremy Kündig
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